The Average Annual Growth Rate of Major Non-ferrous Metal Production During The 14th Five Year Plan Period Is 5.0%

The average annual growth rate of major non-ferrous metal production during the 14th Five Year Plan period is 5.0%

In 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry will deepen its supply side structural reform, promote intelligent, green, and integrated transformation, and achieve steady growth and quality improvement. Chen Xuesen, member of the Party Committee, Vice President, and spokesperson of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated at a press conference on the economic operation of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2025 that by 2025, the total assets of large-scale non-ferrous metal industry enterprises will exceed 6.6 trillion yuan, achieve operating income of 10.2 trillion yuan, and total profit of 528.45 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%, 13.9%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively.

Significant achievements have been made in the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2025

In 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry will continue to deepen supply side structural reform, fully promote intelligent, green, and integrated transformation, and achieve steady growth and quality improvement in a complex market environment.

1） The main indicators are stable and improving, and the development foundation is continuously consolidated

One is that the output of our main products has reached a new high, and our global market share remains leading. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises will increase by 6.9% in 2025, which is 1.0 percentage point higher than the national growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. The production of ten non-ferrous metals has exceeded the 80 million ton mark for the first time, reaching 81.75 million tons, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year, and an average annual growth rate of 5.0% during the 14th Five Year Plan period.

In terms of segmented products, refined copper production reached 14.72 million tons, an increase of 10.4% over the previous year, accounting for 47% of the global market share, with an average annual growth rate of 8.0% during the 14th Five Year Plan period; The production of primary aluminum was 45.016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, accounting for 60% of the global total. The average annual growth rate during the 14th Five Year Plan period was 3.9%. The metal content of six types of mines was 6.19 million tons, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year; The production of alumina was 92.446 million tons, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year; The output of copper materials was 24.814 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3% during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Aluminum production reached 67.504 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% during the 14th Five Year Plan period.

According to preliminary statistics from various branches of the association, industrial silicon production in the field of new energy metals was 4.514 million tons, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous year; The production of electrolytic nickel was 456000 tons, an increase of 25.4% over the previous year; The refined cobalt production was 174000 tons, a decrease of 15.4% from the previous year; The production of lithium carbonate was 944000 tons, an increase of 34.7% over the previous year.

Second, the structure of fixed assets investment was optimized, and investment in mining increased significantly. In 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry will complete a 4.9% increase in fixed assets investment over the previous year, 2.3 percentage points higher than the national industrial investment growth. Among them, fixed assets investment of nonferrous metal mining and processing industry increased by 41.0% over the previous year, and fixed assets investment of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 4.2% over the previous year.

The vitality of private investment was fully released, and China's non-ferrous metal private investment in fixed assets investment increased by 2.6% year on year. Among them, private investment in the non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry increased by 28.7% compared to the previous year, while private investment in the smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 3.9% compared to the previous year.

Thirdly, foreign trade has reached a new high, with strong export growth momentum. The non-ferrous metal industry actively implements a series of policies issued by the state, takes multiple measures to help enterprises explore international markets, and effectively responds to the impact of risks and challenges such as Sino US economic and trade frictions. In 2025, the total import and export trade volume of non-ferrous metals in China will reach a new level, reaching 412.24 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.4% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 24.2% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Among them, the import volume was 326.31 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.6% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5% during the 14th Five Year Plan period; The export value was 85.93 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.2% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 27.4% during the 14th Five Year Plan period.

Among the main import and export products, in 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrate reached 30.31 million tons, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year; The import volume of bauxite reached a historic high of 200 million tons, an increase of 26.4% over the previous year; The import of unprocessed copper and copper materials was 5.321 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% from the previous year. Unforged and rolled aluminum and aluminum exports amounted to 6.134 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% from the previous year; Rare earth exports amounted to 63000 tons, an increase of 12.9% over the previous year.

Fourthly, there is a clear differentiation in market prices, with strong trends in the prices of traditional industrial metals and precious metals. In the domestic spot market in 2025, the annual average price of copper reached a historic high of 81000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.0% compared to the previous year; The annual average price of aluminum is 21000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9% compared to the previous year; The annual average price of lead was 17000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 1.8% compared to the third quarter; The annual average price of zinc is 23000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 1.3% compared to the third quarter. Precious metals have performed outstandingly, with the annual average price of domestic gold spot reaching a historic high of 796.8 yuan/gram, up 45.3% from the previous year. The price has successively broken through the threshold, reaching a maximum of 1017 yuan/gram.

The overall trend of new energy metals is showing a "first suppression and then rebound, hitting the bottom and rebounding". In the domestic spot market in 2025, the annual average price of industrial silicon is 9670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.1% from the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 6.0% compared to the third quarter; The annual average price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 75000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.3% from the previous year, but the trend of price recovery is particularly prominent. The price in the fourth quarter increased by 20.2% compared to the third quarter; The annual average price of nickel was 124000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.7% from the previous year, but the price rebounded month on month in December; The annual average price of cobalt was 267000 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.7% compared to the previous year. The price significantly rebounded in the fourth quarter, with a month on month increase of 51.3%.

The fifth is a significant improvement in the operational efficiency of enterprises, with new highs in assets, revenue, and profit scale. Under the continuous strengthening of macro policies and industrial policies, the vitality of industry development has been fully unleashed. In 2025, there will be 12000 large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises in China, an increase of 39.2% compared to the end of 2020. By 2025, the total assets of large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises will exceed 6.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2% during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Realize a revenue of 10.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 12.4% during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Achieve a new historical high in profits, with a total profit of 528.45 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% over the previous year, and an average annual growth rate of 18.2% during the 14th Five Year Plan period.

Looking at different fields, in 2025, the non-ferrous mining and beneficiation industry will achieve a total profit of 124.86 billion yuan, an increase of 36.1% over the previous year, while the smelting and rolling processing industry will achieve a total profit of 403.59 billion yuan, an increase of 22.6% over the previous year.

Sixth, the green transformation has achieved significant results, and the energy consumption of the main products has reached the world's leading level. The entire industry actively implements the "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in the Nonferrous Metals Industry", promotes energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation in key areas. The proportion of clean energy in the non-ferrous industry has reached one-third of the national grid, and the unit energy consumption of major products has reached the world's leading level. In 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption of copper smelting will be 191 kilograms of standard coal per ton, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the previous year, and the average annual reduction rate during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be 2.2%; The comprehensive AC electricity consumption of primary aluminum is 13202 kWh/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year and about 800 kWh lower than the global average. The average annual rate of decline during the 14th Five Year Plan period is 0.47%.

It should be pointed out that according to the carbon emission forecast for 2025, China's aluminum industry has already achieved carbon peak ahead of schedule in 2024. According to the national "dual carbon" target requirements, peak carbon emissions should be achieved 6 years ahead of schedule.

（2） Implementation of industry policies and deepening of reforms, continuous enhancement of high-quality development momentum

Firstly, the industry's stable growth policies have been accurately implemented, and the development direction has become clearer. Supporting the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", "Implementation Plan for High Quality Development of Copper Industry (2025-2027)", "Implementation Plan for High Quality Development of Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" and other measures, through technological innovation, structural optimization, layout upgrading, digital transformation and other aspects, to promote the transformation of the industry from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, continuously shape new driving forces and advantages for development, and point out the direction for the healthy development of the industry in the next two years. At the same time, the supply side structural reform of the industry is advancing in depth. Based on a systematic summary of the successful experience of existing electrolytic aluminum, governance work is being carried out in an orderly manner to guide the industry towards rational and high-quality development, targeting varieties with prominent problems of "internal competition" such as copper smelting and alumina.

Secondly, the coordinated efforts of resource security guarantee strategies have significantly improved supply resilience. Implement a dual wheel drive of "control" and "circulation" to enhance the security guarantee capability of strategic resources. On the one hand, the precise implementation of export control policies for strategic metals such as rare earths effectively safeguards national resource security, prevents the flow of strategic resources to areas that threaten national security, and significantly enhances China's voice and influence in global resource governance. On the other hand, the announcement on regulating the import management of recycled black powder raw materials and recycled steel raw materials for lithium-ion batteries marks the first time that recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries has obtained legal import qualifications, opening up a new path for resource recycling and further enhancing the diversified guarantee capability of resource supply.

Thirdly, we will make forward-looking arrangements for the development of the 15th Five Year Plan and solidly promote the work of planning and formulation. The association closely integrates with the actual situation of the industry, focuses on the present and the long term, and actively cooperates with the government to prepare the "15th Five Year Plan" for the non-ferrous metal industry. The plan revolves around building a modern non-ferrous metal industry system, focusing on resource security and technological innovation, and clarifying the industry's development ideas, key tasks, and implementation paths for the next five years.

1、 Predict the situation for 2026

Internationally, the global economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026. The World Bank has simultaneously raised its global economic growth expectations, and the rise of the artificial intelligence industry is becoming a new investment engine. Global inflationary pressures are easing, and a new round of fiscal expansion policies will also inject momentum. However, the rise of trade protectionism in the context of the "great power game" has made traditional trade frictions a new normal, and new trade barriers continue to increase; At the same time, geopolitical conflicts and the trend of "resource nationalism" have led to frequent supply disruptions of key resources such as copper and lithium, exacerbating the fragility of the supply chain system and non market risks faced by enterprises.

Domestically, the industry has a solid foundation for growth. On the one hand, a series of policies centered on the industry's stable growth work plan and the implementation plan for high-quality development of the copper and aluminum industries are forming a systematic synergy, providing clear top-level design and path guidance for the industry's transition from resource security to green transformation. On the other hand, the endogenous driving force structure of growth is undergoing profound changes. The continuous increase in volume of the "new three types" and the rise of future industries such as artificial intelligence together constitute the core engine driving the industry to climb towards the high-end of the value chain, indicating higher quality structural growth.

Overall, it is expected that the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry will maintain a steady growth trend in 2026, and the first quarter will continue to operate smoothly, following the good trend at the end of last year, achieving a good start to the 15th Five Year Plan. Assuming no "black swan" events occur, the preliminary estimate for the main indicators of the non-ferrous metal industry for the whole year of 2026 is as follows:

Firstly, production continues to operate smoothly, and it is expected that the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry will increase by about 5% year-on-year. According to the production characteristics and capacity construction of non-ferrous metals, the output of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals will increase by about 2% year-on-year in 2026. Among them, the production of refined copper increased by about 5%, while the production of primary aluminum remained basically unchanged. The industrial added value is expected to remain around 5%.

The second is to maintain growth in industry revenue and profits. In terms of prices, industrial silicon and lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, while the prices of commonly used non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry's revenue growth is expected to reach 5%, achieving a slight increase in profits.

Thirdly, investment will continue to grow, and import and export trade will face challenges. The demand for nickel cobalt lithium and new and high metal materials in downstream photovoltaic, wind power, lithium power and other fields continues to rise. With the implementation of the national consumption promotion policy, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to continue to grow; Due to the turbulent international geopolitical situation, geopolitical conflicts, and the impact of China US trade relations, the pressure on the import and export of industry products has increased, and the growth rate of non-ferrous metal exports may decline.

After years of continuous struggle, China's non-ferrous metal industry has continuously improved its position and competitiveness in the global industrial division of labor with outstanding scale advantages and complete system advantages.