Abandon Distance And Seek Proximity! The Strategic Shift Behind Türkiye's Steel Industry's Export Target of 22 Million Tons

Abandon distance and seek proximity! The strategic shift behind Türkiye's steel industry's export target of 22 million tons

Adnan Aslan's words revealed that Türkiye's steel industry is brewing a profound strategic change: from chasing the ocean to plowing around, from winning by volume to demanding profits from high added value.

On February 19, Adnan Aslan, chairman of Türkiye Iron and Steel Export Association (CIB), sent a clear signal to the industry: under the multiple pressures of global market contraction, rising trade protectionism and price pressure, Türkiye's iron and steel industry must readjust its growth strategy.

As the largest steel producer in Europe, Türkiye will surpass Germany with an output of more than 38 million tons in 2025 and become one of the top eight steel producers in the world. However, behind the dazzling production data lies the harsh reality of EU quota cuts, uncertainty in the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and high logistics costs in the offshore market. In the face of these challenges, the new direction of Türkiye's steel industry is becoming clearer.

Abandoning the Far and Seeking the Near: A New Logic for Regional Survival

The most notable change in Aslan's new strategy is the shift in market focus. Türkiye's steel industry will turn its attention from the distant market to the surrounding and adjacent areas.

Compared to the high logistics costs in the ocean market, it is more reasonable to prioritize markets with closer geographical distances, "Aslan explained when explaining this strategic shift. He pointed out that the trend of regional development in the steel industry is increasing, and high logistics costs and trade barriers are making it increasingly difficult to export by sea.

Under this approach, the European market, Balkan region, Eastern Europe, and neighboring countries have been identified as the core target areas. These markets not only have logistics cost advantages brought by geographical proximity, but more importantly, they can achieve faster delivery, more flexible production, and have closer commercial connections.

Deepening the penetration of existing markets will be the main strategy, "Aslan emphasized. This change means that Türkiye's steel exporters will be more pragmatic in choosing the battlefield, rather than blindly pursuing the breadth of the market.

Waiting for Europe to Awaken: Hope in the Mist of CBAM

As an important destination of Türkiye's steel industry, the European market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation. In 2025, Türkiye will export 5.6 million tons of steel to the EU, with an export amount of about 4.47 billion dollars. But as we enter 2026, exports will begin to decline.

Aslan attributed the temporary downturn in the European market to the uncertainty of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism. This mechanism was officially launched at the beginning of 2026, and some European buyers delayed procurement before clarifying the compliance requirements, bringing short-term pressure to Türkiye's exporters.

However, the industry has expectations for the recovery of the European market. Aslan predicts that once the relevant policies are clear, the recovery of the European market will begin from March to April. This cautious optimism also reflects Türkiye's steel industry's recognition of the irreplaceable strategic value of the European market.

Get rid of low price competition: climb to the high-end of the value chain

In addition to the adjustment of market geographical structure, the upgrading of product structure is the second pillar of Türkiye's new growth strategy.

At present, long products (especially deformed steel bars) still account for a large proportion in Türkiye's exports. But Aslan bluntly stated that the added value of rebar is low, and such a product structure is not sustainable.

The new direction set by Türkiye is clear: increase the export proportion of high value-added products such as cold rolled sheet, galvanized sheet, color coated sheet, stainless steel and fasteners in the medium and long term.

"This transformation aims to free Türkiye's steel industry from direct price competition with low-cost producers such as China and India," Aslan said. Through product upgrading, Türkiye hopes to achieve a more balanced export structure, from price oriented competition to value oriented competition.

2026 goal: Balancing quantity reduction and quality increase

Under the new strategic guidance, Türkiye's steel industry has set specific targets for 2026: the export volume will reach 20 million tons, and the export volume will reach 17 billion dollars.

Reviewing the achievements in 2025, Türkiye's steel export volume is 19.43 million tons, the total export volume is 16.5 billion dollars, and the average export price is 851 dollars/ton. According to the 2026 target, the planned average export price will increase to around 850 US dollars per ton, which is basically the same as last year.

This goal reflects the pragmatic attitude of Türkiye's steel industry. Against the backdrop of global oversupply and sustained pressure on prices from China's high export volume, it is no longer easy to maintain price levels.

It is worth noting that Türkiye not only pays attention to exports, but also needs to meet the challenges of imports. In 2025, Türkiye's steel import volume will increase by 8.6% to more than 18 million tons, and the import amount will reach 13.08 billion US dollars, accounting for about 50% of the domestic steel consumption. U ğ ur Dalbeler, Vice President of Türkiye Iron and Steel Export Association, warned that the surge in imports had had a substantial impact on employment and production. As of January this year, the steel industry had lost about 20000 jobs